Host movement dominates the predicted effects of climate change on parasite transmission between wild and domestic mountain ungulates.

Climate change is shifting the transmission of parasites, which is determined by host density, ambient temperature and moisture. These shifts can lead to increased pressure from parasites, in wild and domestic animals, and can impact the effectiveness of parasite control strategies. Understanding the interactive effects of climate on host movement and parasite life histories will enable targeted parasite management, to ensure livestock productivity and avoid additional stress on wildlife populations. To assess complex outcomes under climate change, we applied a gastrointestinal nematode transmission model to a montane wildlife-livestock system, based on host movement and changes in abiotic factors due to elevation, comparing projected climate change scenarios with the historic climate. The wildlife host, Alpine ibex (Capra ibex ibex), undergoes seasonal elevational migration, and livestock are grazed during the summer for eight weeks. Total parasite infection pressure was more sensitive to host movement than to the direct effect of climatic conditions on parasite availability. Extended livestock grazing is predicted to increase parasite exposure for wildlife. These results demonstrate that movement of different host species should be considered when predicting the effects of climate change on parasite transmission, and can inform decisions to support wildlife and livestock health.

[Brucellosis in Alpine ibex: 10 years of research and expert assessments]. / La brucellose du bouquetin des Alpes - Un exemple de dix années de recherche et d'expertise.

Brucellosis due to Brucella melitensis affects domestic and wild ruminants, as well as other mammals, including humans. Despite France being officially free of bovine brucellosis since 2005, two human cases of Brucella melitensis infection in the French Alps in 2012 led to the discovery of one infected cattle herd and of one infected population of wild Alpine ibex (Capra ibex). In this review, we present the results of 10 years of research on the epidemiology of brucellosis in this population of Alpine ibex. We also discuss the insights brought by research and expert assessments on the efficacy of disease management strategies used to mitigate brucellosis in the French Alps.

Title: La brucellose du bouquetin des Alpes - Un exemple de dix années de recherche et d'expertise. Abstract: La brucellose à Brucella melitensis touche les ruminants domestiques et sauvages, ainsi que d'autres mammifères, dont les humains. Bien que la France soit officiellement indemne depuis 2005, deux cas humains reportés en Haute-Savoie en 2012 ont conduit à la découverte de l'infection dans un élevage bovin et chez les bouquetins des Alpes (Capra ibex) du massif du Bargy. Nous présentons dans cette synthèse les principales découvertes de ces dix dernières années sur le système brucellose-bouquetins. Nous discuterons également de l'apport de la recherche et de l'expertise sur l'évaluation de l'efficacité des mesures de gestion sanitaire mises en place dans le massif du Bargy pour lutter contre la brucellose.

Combining seroprevalence and capture-mark-recapture data to estimate the force of infection of brucellosis in a managed population of Alpine ibex.

In wildlife, epidemiological data are often collected using cross-sectional surveys and antibody tests, and seroprevalence is the most common measure used to monitor the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. On the contrary, the force of infection, a measure of transmission intensity that can help understand epidemiological dynamics and monitor management interventions, remains rarely used. The force of infection can be derived from age-stratified cross-sectional serological data, or from longitudinal data (although less frequently available in wildlife populations). Here, we combined seroprevalence and capture-mark-recapture data to estimate the force of infection of brucellosis in an Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) population monitored from 2012 to 2018. Because the seroprevalence of brucellosis was 38% in this population in 2012, managers conducted two culling operations in 2013 and 2015, as well as captures every year since 2012, where seronegative individuals were marked and released, and seropositive individuals were removed. We obtained two estimates of the force of infection and its changes across time, by fitting (i) a catalytic model to age-seroprevalence data obtained from unmarked animals (cross-sectional), and (ii) a survival model to event time data obtained from recaptures of marked animals (longitudinal). Using both types of data allowed us to make robust inference about the temporal dynamics of the force of infection: indeed, there was evidence for a decrease in the force of infection between mid-2014 and late 2015 in both datasets. The force of infection was estimated to be reduced from 0.115 year-1 [0.074-0.160] to 0.016 year-1 [0.001-0.057]. These results confirm that transmission intensity decreased during the study period, probably due to management interventions and natural changes in infection dynamics. Estimating the force of infection could therefore be a valuable complement to classical seroprevalence analyses to monitor the dynamics of wildlife diseases, especially in the context of ongoing disease management interventions.

Targeted strategies for the management of wildlife diseases: the case of brucellosis in Alpine ibex.

The management of infectious diseases in wildlife reservoirs is challenging and faces several limitations. However, detailed knowledge of host-pathogen systems often reveal heterogeneity among the hosts' contribution to transmission. Management strategies targeting specific classes of individuals and/or areas, having a particular role in transmission, could be more effective and more acceptable than population-wide interventions. In the wild population of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex-a protected species) of the Bargy massif (French Alps), females transmit brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) infection in ~90% of cases, and most transmissions occur in the central spatial units ("core area"). Therefore, we expanded an individual-based model, developed in a previous study, to test whether strategies targeting females or the core area, or both, would be more effective. We simulated the relative efficacy of realistic strategies for the studied population, combining test-and-remove (euthanasia of captured animals with seropositive test results) and partial culling of unmarked animals. Targeting females or the core area was more effective than untargeted management options, and strategies targeting both were even more effective. Interestingly, the number of ibex euthanized and culled in targeted strategies were lower than in untargeted ones, thus decreasing the conservation costs while increasing the sanitary benefits. Although there was no silver bullet for the management of brucellosis in the studied population, targeted strategies offered a wide range of promising refinements to classical sanitary measures. We therefore encourage to look for heterogeneity in other wildlife diseases and to evaluate potential strategies for improving management in terms of efficacy but also acceptability.

Estimating disease prevalence and temporal dynamics using biased capture serological data in a wildlife reservoir: The example of brucellosis in Alpine ibex (Capra ibex).

The monitoring of the disease prevalence in a population is an essential component of its adaptive management. However, field data often lead to biased estimates. This is the case for brucellosis infection of ibex in the Bargy massif (France). A test-and-cull program is being carried out in this area to manage the infection: captured animals are euthanized when seropositive, and marked and released when seronegative. Because this mountainous species is difficult to capture, field workers tend to focus the capture effort on unmarked animals. Indeed, marked animals are less likely to be infected, as they were controlled and negative during previous years. As the proportion of marked animals in the population becomes large, captured animals can no longer be considered as an unbiased sample of the population. We designed an integrated Bayesian model to correct this bias, by estimating the seroprevalence in the population as the combination of the separate estimates of the seroprevalence among unmarked animals (estimated from the data) and marked animals (estimated with a catalytic infection model, to circumvent the scarcity of the data). As seroprevalence may not be the most responsive parameter to management actions, we also estimated the proportion of animals in the population with an active bacterial infection. The actual infection status of captured animals was thus inferred as a function of their age and their level of antibodies, using a model based on bacterial cultures carried out for a sample of animals. Focusing on the population of adult females in the core area of the massif, i.e. with the highest seroprevalence, this observational study shows that seroprevalence has been divided by two between 2013 (51%) and 2018 (21%). Moreover, the likely estimated proportion of actively infected females in the same population, though very imprecise, has decreased from a likely estimate of 34% to less than 15%, suggesting that the management actions have been effective in reducing infection prevalence.

Variation in the ontogenetic allometry of horn length in bovids along a body mass continuum.

Allometric relationships describe the proportional covariation between morphological, physiological, or life-history traits and the size of the organisms. Evolutionary allometries estimated among species are expected to result from species differences in ontogenetic allometry, but it remains uncertain whether ontogenetic allometric parameters and particularly the ontogenetic slope can evolve. In bovids, the nonlinear evolutionary allometry between horn length and body mass in males suggests systematic changes in ontogenetic allometry with increasing species body mass. To test this hypothesis, we estimated ontogenetic allometry between horn length and body mass in males and females of 19 bovid species ranging from ca. 5 to 700 kg. Ontogenetic allometry changed systematically with species body mass from steep ontogenetic allometries over a short period of horn growth in small species to shallow allometry with the growth period of horns matching the period of body mass increase in the largest species. Intermediate species displayed steep allometry over long period of horn growth. Females tended to display shallower ontogenetic allometry with longer horn growth compared to males, but these differences were weak and highly variable. These findings show that ontogenetic allometric slope evolved across species possibly as a response to size-related changes in the selection pressures acting on horn length and body mass.

High Shedding Potential and Significant Individual Heterogeneity in Naturally-Infected Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) With Brucella melitensis.

Wildlife reservoirs of infectious diseases raise major management issues. In Europe, brucellosis has been eradicated in domestic ruminants from most countries and wild ruminants have not been considered important reservoirs so far. However, a high prevalence of Brucella melitensis infection has been recently identified in a French population of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex), after the emergence of brucellosis was confirmed in a dairy cattle farm and two human cases. This situation raised the need to identify the factors driving the persistence of Brucella infection at high prevalence levels in this ibex population. In the present paper, we studied the shedding pattern of B. melitensis in ibex from Bargy Massif, French Alps. Bacteriological examinations (1-15 tissues/samples per individual) were performed on 88 seropositive, supposedly infected and euthanized individuals. Among them, 51 (58%) showed at least one positive culture, including 45 ibex with at least one Brucella isolation from a urogenital sample or a lymph node in the pelvic area (active infection in organs in the pelvic area). Among these 45 ibex, 26 (30% of the total number of necropsied animals) showed at least one positive culture for a urogenital organ and were considered as being at risk of shedding the bacteria at the time of capture. We observed significant heterogeneity between sex-and-age classes: seropositive females were most at risk to excrete Brucella before the age of 5 years, possibly corresponding to abortion during the first pregnancy following infection such as reported in the domestic ruminants. The high shedding potential observed in young females may have contributed to the self-sustained maintenance of infection in this population, whereas males are supposed to play a role of transmission between spatial units through venereal transmission during mating. This heterogeneity in the shedding potential of seropositive individuals should be considered in the future to better evaluate management scenarios in this system as well as in others.

Sociospatial structure explains marked variation in brucellosis seroprevalence in an Alpine ibex population.

In a context of (re)emerging infectious diseases with wildlife reservoirs, understanding how animal ecology shapes epidemiology is a key issue, particularly in wild ungulates that share pathogens with domestic herbivores and have similar food requirements. For the first time in Europe, brucellosis (Brucella melitensis), a virulent zoonosis, persisted in an Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) population and was transmitted to cattle and humans. To better understand disease dynamics, we investigated the relationships between the spatial ecology of ibex and the epidemiology of brucellosis. Combining home range overlap between 37 GPS-collared individuals and visual observations of 148 visually-marked individuals monitored during the 2013-2016 period, we showed that females were spatially segregated in at least 4 units all year round, whereas males were more prone to move between female units, in particular during the rutting period. In addition to ibex age, the spatial structure in females largely contributed to variation in seroprevalence in the whole population. These results suggest that non-sexual routes are the most likely pathways of intraspecific transmission, crucial information for management. Accounting for wildlife spatial ecology was hence decisive in improving our ability to better understand this health challenge involving a wildlife reservoir.

From gestation to weaning: Combining robust design and multi-event models unveils cost of lactation in a large herbivore.

The cost of current reproduction on survival or future reproduction is one of the most studied trade-offs governing resource distribution between fitness components. Results have often been clouded, however, by the existence of individual heterogeneity, with high-quality individuals able to allocate energy to several functions simultaneously, at no apparent cost. Surprisingly, it has also rarely been assessed within a breeding season by breaking down the various reproductive efforts of females from gestation to weaning, even though resource availability and energy requirements vary greatly. We filled this gap by using an intensively monitored population of Pyrenean chamois and by expanding a new methodological approach integrating robust design in a multi-event framework. We distinguished females that gave birth or not, and among reproducing females whether they lost their kid or successfully raised it until weaning. We estimated spring and summer juvenile survival, investigated whether gestation, lactation or weaning incurred costs on the next reproductive occasion, and assessed how individual heterogeneity influenced the detection of such costs. Contrary to expectations if trade-offs occur, we found a positive relationship between gestation and adult survival suggesting that non-breeding females are in poor condition. Costs of reproduction were expressed through negative relationships between lactation and both subsequent breeding probability and spring juvenile survival. Such costs could be detected only once individual heterogeneity (assessed as two groups contrasting good vs. poor breeders) and time variations in juvenile survival were accounted for. Early lactation decreased the probability of future reproduction, providing quantitative evidence of the fitness cost of this period recognized as the most energetically demanding in female mammals and critical for neonatal survival. The new approach employed made it possible to estimate two components of kid survival that are often considered practically unavailable in free-ranging populations, and also revealed that reproductive costs appeared only when contrasting the different stages of reproductive effort. From an evolutionary perspective, our findings stressed the importance of the temporal resolution at which reproductive cost is studied, and also provided insights on the reproductive period during which internal and external factors would be expected to have the greatest fitness impact.

Evidence of reduced individual heterogeneity in adult survival of long-lived species.

The canalization hypothesis postulates that the rate at which trait variation generates variation in the average individual fitness in a population determines how buffered traits are against environmental and genetic factors. The ranking of a species on the slow-fast continuum - the covariation among life-history traits describing species-specific life cycles along a gradient going from a long life, slow maturity, and low annual reproductive output, to a short life, fast maturity, and high annual reproductive output - strongly correlates with the relative fitness impact of a given amount of variation in adult survival. Under the canalization hypothesis, long-lived species are thus expected to display less individual heterogeneity in survival at the onset of adulthood, when reproductive values peak, than short-lived species. We tested this life-history prediction by analysing long-term time series of individual-based data in nine species of birds and mammals using capture-recapture models. We found that individual heterogeneity in survival was higher in species with short-generation time (< 3 years) than in species with long generation time (> 4 years). Our findings provide the first piece of empirical evidence for the canalization hypothesis at the individual level from the wild.

Onset of autumn shapes the timing of birth in Pyrenean chamois more than onset of spring.

In seasonal environments, birth dates are a central component for a species' life history, with potential long-term fitness consequences. Yet our understanding of selective pressures of environmental changes on birth dates is limited in wild mammals due to the difficulty of data collection. In a context of rapid climate change, the question of a possible mismatch between plant phenology and birth phenology also remains unanswered for most species. We assessed whether and how the timing of birth in a mountain mammal (isard, also named Pyrenean chamois, Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica) tracked changes in plant growing season, accounting for maternal traits, individual heterogeneity and population density. We not only focused on spring conditions but also assessed to what extent onset of autumn can be a driver of phenological biological events and compared the magnitude of the response to the magnitude of the environmental changes. We relied on a 22-year study based on intensively monitored marked individuals of known age. Births were highly synchronized (80% of kids born within 25 days) and highly repeatable (84%; between-female variation of 9.6 days, within-female variation of 4.2 days). Individual phenotypic plasticity allows females to respond rapidly to interannual changes in plant phenology but did not prevent the existence of a mismatch: a 10-day advance in the autumn or spring plant phenology led to 3.9 and 1.3 days advance in birth dates, respectively. Our findings suggest that plant phenology may act as a cue to induce important stages of the reproductive cycle (e.g. conception and gestation length), subsequently affecting parturition dates, and stressed the importance of focusing on long-term changes during spring for which females may show much lower adaptive potential than during autumn. These results also question the extent to which individual plasticity along with high heterogeneity among individuals will allow species to cope with demographic consequences of climate changes.

Age-specific survival and annual variation in survival of female chamois differ between populations.

In many species, population dynamics are shaped by age-structured demographic parameters, such as survival, which can cause age-specific sensitivity to environmental conditions. Accordingly, we can expect populations with different age-specific survival to be differently affected by environmental variation. However, this hypothesis is rarely tested at the intra-specific level. Using capture-mark-recapture models, we quantified age-specific survival and the extent of annual variations in survival of females of alpine chamois in two sites. In one population, survival was very high (>0.94; Bauges, France) until the onset of senescence at approximately 7 years old, whereas the two other populations (Swiss National Park, SNP) had a later onset (12 years old) and a lower rate of senescence. Senescence patterns are therefore not fixed within species. Annual variation in survival was higher in the Bauges (SD = 0.26) compared to the SNP populations (SD = 0.20). Also, in each population, the age classes with the lowest survival also experienced the largest temporal variation, in accordance with inter-specific comparisons showing a greater impact of environmental variation on these age classes. The large difference between the populations in age-specific survival and variation suggests that environmental variation and climate change will affect these populations differently.

Alpine ibex males grow large horns at no survival cost for most of their lifetime.

Large horns or antlers require a high energy allocation to produce and carry both physiological and social reproductive costs. Following the principle of energy allocation that implies trade-offs among fitness components, growing large weapons early in life should thus reduce future growth and survival. Evidence for such costs is ambiguous, however, partly because individual heterogeneity can counterbalance trade-offs. Individuals with larger horns or antlers may be of better quality and thus have a greater capacity to survive. We investigated trade-offs between male early horn growth and future horn growth, baseline mortality, onset of actuarial senescence, and rate of ageing in an Alpine ibex (Capra ibex ibex) population. Horn growth of males in early life was positively correlated to their horn length throughout their entire life. Cohort variation and individual heterogeneity both accounted for among-individual variation in horn length, suggesting both long-lasting effects of early life conditions and individual-specific horn growth trajectories. Early horn growth did not influence annual survival until 12 years of age, indicating that males do not invest in horn growth at survival costs over most of their lifetime. However, males with fast-growing horns early in life tended to have lower survival at very old ages. Individual heterogeneity, along with the particular life-history tactic of male ibex (weak participation to the rut until an old age after which they burn out in high mating investment), are likely to explain why the expected trade-off between horn growth and survival does not show up, at least until very old ages.

New insights on the management of wildlife diseases using multi-state recapture models: the case of classical swine fever in wild boar.

BACKGROUND: The understanding of host-parasite systems in wildlife is of increasing interest in relation to the risk of emerging diseases in livestock and humans. In this respect, many efforts have been dedicated to controlling classical swine fever (CSF) in the European Wild Boar. But CSF eradication has not always been achieved even though vaccination has been implemented at a large-scale. Piglets have been assumed to be the main cause of CSF persistence in the wild since they appeared to be more often infected and less often immune than older animals. However, this assumption emerged from laboratory trials or cross-sectional surveys based on the hunting bags. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the present paper we conducted a capture-mark-recapture study in free-ranging wild boar piglets that experienced both CSF infection and vaccination under natural conditions. We used multi-state capture recapture models to estimate the immunization and infection rates, and their variations according to the periods with or without vaccination. According to the model prediction, 80% of the infected piglets did not survive more than two weeks, while the other 20% quickly recovered. The probability of becoming immune did not increase significantly during the summer vaccination sessions, and the proportion of immune piglets was not higher after the autumn vaccination. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Given the high lethality of CSF in piglets highlighted in our study, we consider unlikely that piglets could maintain the chain of CSF virus transmission. Our study also revealed the low efficacy of vaccination in piglets in summer and autumn, possibly due to the low palatability of baits to that age class, but also to the competition between baits and alternative food sources. Based on this new information, we discuss the prospects for the improvement of CSF control and the interest of the capture-recapture approach for improving the understanding of wildlife diseases.

Assessing whether mortality is additive using marked animals: a Bayesian state-space modeling approach.

Whether different sources of mortality are additive, compensatory, or depensatory is a key question in population biology. A way to test for additivity is to calculate the correlation between cause-specific mortality rates obtained from marked animals. However, existing methods to estimate this correlation raise several methodological issues. One difficulty is the existence of an intrinsic bias in the correlation parameter. Although this bias can be formally expressed, it requires knowledge about natural survival without any competing mortality source, which is difficult to assess in most cases. Another difficulty lies in estimating the true process correlation while properly accounting for sampling variation. Using a Bayesian approach, we developed a state-space model to assess the correlation between two competing sources of mortality. By distinguishing the mortality process from its observation through dead recoveries and live recaptures, we estimated the process correlation. To correct for the intrinsic bias, we incorporated experts' opinions on natural survival. We illustrated our approach using data on a hunted population of wild boars. Mortalities were not additive and natural mortality increased with hunting mortality likely as a consequence of non-controlled mortality by crippling loss. Our method opens perspectives for wildlife management and for the conservation of endangered species.

Sex- and age-specific survival of the highly dimorphic Alpine ibex: evidence for a conservative life-history tactic.

1. Age-specific survival of 215 males and 117 females of the highly sexually dimorphic Alpine ibex Capra ibex (L.) was assessed from a 21-year capture-mark-recapture (CMR) programme (1983-2004). The study covered two contrasted periods of population performance (high performance from 1983 to 1997 vs. low performance from 1998 onwards). 2. Based on current life-history theories for sexually dimorphic species, we expected that survival should decrease with age in both sexes, female survival should be buffered against environmental variations, male survival should decrease during the low performance period, and adult survival should be lower in males than females during the low performance period. 3. Survival of both sexes was strongly affected by age, with the four age classes (yearling, prime-aged adults of 2-8 years of age, old adults of 8-13 years of age, and senescent adults from 13 years of age onwards) generally reported for large herbivores. 4. Survival of females at all ages, and of yearling and prime-aged males, was buffered against environmental variations and was the same during periods of high and low population performance. The survival of old males decreased in years of low population performance. 5. All marked yearlings (32 females, 56 males) survived to age 2. Survival of prime-aged females (0.996 +/- 0.011) was higher than for other large herbivores, but similarly to other large herbivore species, it declined slowly and regularly with increasing age afterwards. Male survival was 5-15% higher each year than that of males of other large herbivores. Males enjoyed very high survival when prime-aged (0.981 +/- 0.009) and as old adults (high-performance period: 0.965 +/- 0.028, low-performance period: 0.847 +/- 0.032). 6. The very high survival of males, coupled with their prolonged mass gain, suggests a highly conservative reproductive tactic. Male ibex differ from similar-sized herbivores by showing a nearly indeterminate growth in horn size and body mass. By surviving to an advanced age, males may enjoy high reproductive success because of their large size.